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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 21

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – New York Giants 28

What Actually Happened

(3:55) 6-C.Sturgis 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.79 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 31, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model