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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 17

Philadelphia Eagles 23 – New York Giants 28

What Actually Happened

(1:28) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep right to 81-J.Matthews.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +4.79 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 17, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +2.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.68 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 27, worth -0.32 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.24 EP