4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 23

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz left end to NYG 27 for -4 yards (20-J.Jenkins, 98-D.Harrison).

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.26 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 23, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
  • 85% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 33, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model