Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 72

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

(13:33) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 28 yards to BAL 44, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
60% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 72, worth -4.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model