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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 84

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(4:30) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 56 yards to BAL 28, Center-60-G.Warren. 14-D.Hester pushed ob at BAL 29 for 1 yard (83-C.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.51 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 84, worth -4.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 42, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP