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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 80

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(1:57) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 54 yards to BAL 26, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-51-S.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.01 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 80, worth -4.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 37, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model