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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 15 at the 31

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(:08) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Penalty on PIT-29-S.Thomas, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +2.97 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 31, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 41, worth -0.25 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model