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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 15 at the 81

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:34) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to PIT 34, Center-46-M.Cox. 84-A.Brown ran ob at PIT 34 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -2.97 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.67 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 38, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model