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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 77

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(3:26) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 54 yards to BAL 23, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 14-D.Hester.

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 77, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 34, worth -1.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model