Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 67

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(13:44) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punt is BLOCKED by 37-J.Allen, Center-60-G.Warren, RECOVERED by BAL-10-C.Moore at PIT 14. 10-C.Moore for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.90 EP
63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 67, worth -3.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model