Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 83

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

(9:16) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 61 yards to BAL 22, Center-60-G.Warren. 14-D.Hester to BAL 36 for 14 yards (98-V.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.42 EP
53% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 83, worth -5.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model