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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 55

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 51 yards to BAL 4, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-29-S.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.54 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 55, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 16, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP