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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 59

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(14:56) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to BAL 16, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-51-S.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.35 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 59, worth -3.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 18, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model