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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 64

Los Angeles Chargers 16 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(2:42) 8-D.Kaser punts 43 yards to TEN 21, Center-47-M.Windt. 87-M.Mariani MUFFS catch, and recovers at TEN 21.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.94 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 64, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 22, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP