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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 67

Tennessee Titans 21 – Los Angeles Chargers 33

What Actually Happened

(:30) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to LAC 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 89-I.Burse to LAC 22 for no gain (50-N.Palmer).

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP