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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 58

Los Angeles Chargers 33 – Tennessee Titans 21

What Actually Happened

(12:58) 8-D.Kaser punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.31 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 58, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP