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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 18

Los Angeles Chargers 33 – Tennessee Titans 28

What Actually Happened

(6:10) 2-J.Lambo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

The Three Options

GO +2.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.65 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 18, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 28, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP