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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 51

New Orleans Saints 0 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(10:49) 6-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to DEN 10, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.24 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 51, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -1.20 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model