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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 50

Denver Broncos 10 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(5:26) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to NO 12, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 31-J.Byrd to NO 14 for 2 yards (16-B.Fowler).

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.39 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 50, worth -2.88 EP
KICK -1.48 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model