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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 78

New Orleans Saints 0 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(3:36) 6-T.Morstead punts 38 yards to DEN 40, Center-47-J.Drescher. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 47 for 7 yards (19-J.Lampman). PENALTY on DEN-14-C.Latimer, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 40.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.15 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 78, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 35, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP