4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 49

New Orleans Saints 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(13:06) 6-T.Morstead punts 34 yards to DEN 15, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.78 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -0.98 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model