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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 24

Denver Broncos 10 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(14:23) 8-B.McManus 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.23 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 34, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model