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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 10

Denver Broncos 17 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(3:27) 8-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.07 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 10, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model