Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 82

Denver Broncos 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

(:07) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to NO 37, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 10-B.Cooks to NO 39 for 2 yards (31-J.Simmons).

The Three Options

GO -3.10 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.72 EP
68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 82, worth -4.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model