Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 56

Tennessee Titans 28 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:35) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 34 yards to GB 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-T.Davis MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TEN-36-L.Sims at GB 24. PENALTY on GB-51-K.Fackrell, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 12 yards, enforced at GB 24.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.84 EP
66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model