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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 57

Green Bay Packers 16 – Tennessee Titans 35

What Actually Happened

(10:25) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams to TEN 22 for 35 yards (30-J.McCourty). Penalty on TEN-20-P.Cox, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.66 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 57, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model