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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 20

Green Bay Packers 22 – Tennessee Titans 41

What Actually Happened

(1:02) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.32 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 20, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.47 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model