4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 41

Green Bay Packers 25 – Tennessee Titans 41

What Actually Happened

(12:07) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 82-R.Rodgers.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.78 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 41, worth -2.08 EP
KICK -0.49 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model