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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 71

Tennessee Titans 47 – Green Bay Packers 25

What Actually Happened

(1:10) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to GB 25, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-T.Davis to GB 37 for 12 yards (50-N.Palmer).

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +0.32 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 71, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 29, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model