4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 55

Green Bay Packers 25 – Tennessee Titans 47

What Actually Happened

(:41) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Janis (20-P.Cox).

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +0.96 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 55, worth -0.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model