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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 44

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(:50) 32-S.Ware left end pushed ob at CAR 35 for 9 yards (24-J.Bradberry). Jah Reid reported as eligible

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.76 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.78 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model