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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 56

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(10:37) 2-D.Colquitt punts 47 yards to CAR 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.75 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 56, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model