Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 15 at the 74

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(:43) 2-D.Colquitt punts 53 yards to CAR 21, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-T.Ginn ran ob at CAR 33 for 12 yards (41-J.Winchester). PENALTY on CAR-55-D.Mayo, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 30.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +0.34 EP
72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 74, worth -2.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model