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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 62

Carolina Panthers 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(5:51) 8-A.Lee punts 43 yards to KC 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 10-T.Hill to KC 25 for 6 yards (27-R.McClain; 55-D.Mayo).

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.29 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 62, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP