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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 68

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:09) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to CAR 26, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 68, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model