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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 60

New York Jets 6 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(5:24) 4-L.Edwards punts 54 yards to LA 6, Center-46-T.Purdum. 11-T.Austin to LA 18 for 12 yards (51-J.Stanford).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.87 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 60, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 19, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model