Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 83

Los Angeles Rams 3 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(3:49) 6-J.Hekker punts 59 yards to NYJ 24, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 89-J.Marshall MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYJ 20. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 13 for -7 yards (59-J.Forrest). PENALTY on NYJ-30-N.Marshall, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 20.

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.12 EP
67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 83, worth -4.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model