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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 76

Los Angeles Rams 3 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(:43) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to NYJ 31, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 30-N.Marshall to NYJ 31 for no gain (13-M.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.82 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 76, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 34, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model