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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 56

New York Jets 6 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(8:45) 4-L.Edwards punts 31 yards to LA 25, Center-46-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-48-Jo.Jenkins.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.86 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 56, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 17, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model