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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 20 at the 20

Los Angeles Rams 3 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(:24) 4-G.Zuerlein 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
  • 19% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.05 EP
  • 81% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 20, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 30, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model