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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 16

Los Angeles Rams 6 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(6:52) 4-G.Zuerlein 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.22 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 16, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 26, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model