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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 52

New York Jets 6 – Los Angeles Rams 9

What Actually Happened

(4:52) 4-L.Edwards punts 32 yards to LA 20, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 10-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.83 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 52, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -1.43 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 15, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model