Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 72

Los Angeles Rams 9 – New York Jets 6

(3:01) 6-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to NYJ 23, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 89-J.Marshall.

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +0.62 EP
70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 72, worth -4.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model