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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 13 at the 43

Los Angeles Rams 3 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 6-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to NYJ 1, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-15-B.Marquez.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.75 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 43, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.08 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model