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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 15 at the 36

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(:55) 8-D.Kaser punts 29 yards to MIA 7, impetus ends at MIA 1, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-53-J.Perry.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.38 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 36, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -1.99 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EP