Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 81

Miami Dolphins 21 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(11:46) 4-M.Darr punts 59 yards to LAC 22, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-40-L.Pitts. PENALTY on LAC-29-C.Mager, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 22.

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.97 EP
68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model