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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 9

Miami Dolphins 21 – Los Angeles Chargers 24

What Actually Happened

(3:01) 3-A.Franks 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.94 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model