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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 43

Miami Dolphins 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:44) 4-M.Darr punts 40 yards to LAC 3, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.88 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -1.20 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.99 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model