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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 91

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(4:41) 8-D.Kaser punts 55 yards to MIA 36, Center-47-M.Windt. 19-J.Grant MUFFS catch, touched at MIA 36, and recovers at MIA 38. 19-J.Grant to MIA 38 for no gain (58-To.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.56 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 91, worth -5.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.52 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 48, worth -2.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP