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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 68

Seattle Seahawks 19 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 9-J.Ryan punts 54 yards to NE 14, Center-48-N.Frese. 24-Cy.Jones to NE 35 for 21 yards (46-W.Tukuafu; 48-N.Frese). PENALTY on NE-22-J.Coleman, Clipping, 9 yards, enforced at NE 18.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 68, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 26, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP